Stale rents = paused buyers; The Seattle Condo Market Review for December 2025
Happy New Year!
And just like that we're into 2026 and 1/4th of the way through the 21st century. Wild!
Welcome to the latest edition of the Seattle Condo Market Review. As always, to jump forward straight to the stats, you can do so by clicking here. To get deeper context into everything Seattle condo related, continue below!
For those of you who have been consistently reading these reports over the years, you're probably well aware of the challenges I've had in trying to report on something new month after month in a market that's been so, well, challenging. I'm going to come right out and say it, I don't think 2026 is going to be any different. I hope I'm wrong.
What does it take to get a home sold? It takes a listing (supply) and demand (a buyer). I know, duh, a real brain buster of a question. We know that inventory/supply has not been kind to the condo market for the past year and beyond, but we also know demand has been oppressed too thanks to affordability challenges with increasing mortgage rates, insurance costs, HOA dues, etc. However, I want to explore a less talked about challenge to getting condos sold. Flat rents and a significant disparity in the mortgage to rent ratio.
Historically, rising rents are the best incentive for buyers to kickstart their homeownership journey. Not because homeownership is less expensive than renting, but if the figures are close enough, it makes sense hedging one's housing cost and investing into real estate vs paying someone else's mortgage month after month. The problem the condo market is seeing right now is totally different. Renters are staying put because their rents aren't increasing AND the value of condo ownership hasn't produced the return on investment it did years ago.
I'm going to share some real life examples for condo owners who have reached out to me about selling, some who have had their units rented out recently, so I can directly convey these challenges in real time.
An owner of a Belltown studio was recently receiving $1,700/month in rent. It was a studio unit and I estimated it could sell for $260,000, or thereabouts. If a buyer were to purchase this unit at $260,000 and put 20% down while financing the home at 6%, the buyer's total monthly payment, including HOA's, would come out to $2034. As a consumer, would you rather pay $1700 or $2,034 AFTER dropping $50,000+ into a down payment?
Another Belltown condo owner, this time of a 1 bedroom unit is currently receiving $2200/month in rent. Their total mortgage + HOA payment was in excess of $2,600/month. So they were already losing roughly $400/month in negative cash flow. Yikes. I estimated that $350,000 would be a sensible price for this unit so with a 20% down payment, financing at 6%, all the same factors from above, that would equate to a monthly mortgage payment of $2,796/month. Roughly a $600/month difference, or 27%+ more to buy vs rent.
Moving outside of Belltown, a Queen Anne condo owner contacted me who currently has their unit leased for $3,000/month. Not bad at all for a 1 bedroom unit. The problem here is that this building has extremely high HOA dues of $1,493/month. Buying that unit today at $575,000 (which would be a little less than what the unit was purchased for in 2019) would equate to a total monthly mortgage payment (plus HOA's) of $4,851/month. 61.7% more than what the unit is currently rented for. Wow.
Don't get me wrong, the monthly payment has historically almost always been higher on a mortgage vs rent comparison so I'm not suggesting it only makes sense to buy when the numbers are close or when it's more expensive to rent. The problem I'm highlighting is when buyer's aren't seeing the value of the asset they're investing in AND they can rent the exact same unit for a fraction of a monthly payment vs owning, what's compelling them to pursue condo ownership? Especially with inflation staying elevated everywhere else, the ability to keep your housing costs minimized is likely paramount to many Seattleites.
Onto the stats:
The median sales price for a Seattle condo ended 2025 at $550,000. That is up .9% YoY and down MoM from $573,500. Inventory was up 13.8% YoY but the months of inventory stat declined significantly to 3.02 from 5.41 months in November. We also notched the highest absorption rate metric since March (likely due to all those units being pulled from the market in December).
Lastly, I'm hosting a FREE Home Buying seminar on February 7, 2026 at Ivar's Salmon House in North Lake Union. It's from 10-11:30 and if you'd like to come, you can RSVP here. If you know of anybody else who might be interested, feel free to forward to them.
I look forward to connecting more in 2026. Onward!
